The present invention relates to management systems utilizing electrical communications and information exchange for optimizing a business operation arid, more particularly, to business management systems for optimizing operations in a deregulated electrical power and energy market, utilizing electronic information exchange, optionally including communications on the Internet, World Wide Web, e-Business networks, intranets, wireless nets, local area networks, and similar facilities.
In a deregulated electric energy market, many electric utility companies that previously included an integrated range of capabilities, including electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, have separated and are expected in the future to separate these capabilities into different companies: electric power generation companies (GenCos), electric power transmission companies (TransCos), electric power distribution companies (DisCos). Additional roles have come to exist as a result of the buying and selling of electric power and transmission capacity. Such additional roles may (remove xe2x80x9cmayxe2x80x9d) include electric power exchanges where the energy trading takes place at the wholesale level, Independent Systems Operators (ISOs) that manage the trading in transmission capacity, and resellers that buy electric power and then resell it to others, some of which are electric power consumers. Additionally, once electric power has been purchased, space or capacity for its transmission must be reserved from the ISOs or owners of electric power transmission lines. DisCos may also be resellers, or resellers that are not DisCos may pay a DisCo for the right to deliver electric power over lines owned by the DisCos.
It will also be understood that the term xe2x80x9celectricityxe2x80x9d as hereinafter used, generally encompasses the terms electrical energy and/or electric power, as will be apparent from the context. Electrical consumers will typically pay separate charges for the electric power itself, the transmission of the electricity from where it is generated to the local geographical area where it is to be consumed, and the distribution of the electricity to its final consumption point. Money flow in the deregulated market would look like something like the chart shown in FIG. 1, in which the abbreviations used are as defined above.
Due to the retiring of old generation capacity, uncertainties concerning deregulation, and other factors, certain forecasts predict insufficient electric power generation capacity to meet peak demands for some time to come. Likewise, electric power transmission capacity is forecast to be insufficient to meet peak demands for the foreseeable future due to uncertainties concerning deregulation and the lack of rights-of-way in many regions for additional transmission capacity to be built. Particularly on especially hot days in summer when air-conditioning power demands are high, insufficient local power generation capacity and congestion on power transmission lines to other regions typically results in demand exceeding the available supply. As a result of such conditions, the cost of electric power and the cost of transmission capacity have reached peak prices two orders of magnitude higher than their average prices. For example, during early July 1998, prices went from less than $50 per Megawatt-Hour (MWh) to over $7,000 per MWh. Several energy service companies (ESCos) went bankrupt trying to buy electricity to meet their electric power contracts. Effective risk management has taken on new importance as a result.
Deregulation offers great opportunity in the energy market for both suppliers and customers, but it is herein recognized that:
CandI (Commercial and Industrial) energy customers cannot easily take advantage of short-term price fluctuations
Energy customers cannot easily respond to restrictions on or shortages in energy supply
ESCOs"" ability to shut down or control customers"" equipment is not appealing to most energy customers.
Energy Customers cannot respond quickly to adapt their energy demand optimally in the presence of voluntary (with price advantages) or involuntary curtailments
ESCOs assume huge financial risks due to price fluctuations and inability to control energy demands.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method with interaction between an electrical energy supplier and a plurality of customer energy consumers, wherein the method comprises the steps of the consumers providing respective electricity load profiles to the energy supplier; the energy supplier aggregating the respective projected electricity load profiles; and the energy supplier making decisions based on the respective projected electricity load profiles on any of: bidding on additional power, offering excess power on energy exchanges, and offering specials discounts to favored consumers.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method for trading in load estimations with interaction between an electrical energy supplier and a plurality of customer energy consumers, comprises the steps of:
grouping the plurality of customers into respective customer circles such that each circle comprises a number of customers engaged in similar activities; developing respective load profiles for each of the customer circles for a predetermined period past; inputting the respective load profiles to an aggregate load profile estimator for providing an aggregate load estimate; and trading in the load estimate.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, business management method for load estimation comprises a step of trading in the aggregate load estimate confidentially between sender and recipient.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method for load estimation comprises a step of trading in the aggregate load estimate within a customer circle of the respective customer circles.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method for load estimation comprises a step of trading in the aggregate load estimate with electrical energy suppliers.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method for load estimation comprises a step of trading in the aggregate load estimate with any of electric power distribution companies, power generation companies, brokers, and suppliers.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method for load estimation comprises a step of inputting risk parameters to the aggregate load profile estimator for use in providing the aggregate load estimate.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, the step of inputting risk parameters to the aggregate load profile estimator comprises a step of inputting variance.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, the step of developing respective load profiles comprises a step of using historical meter data.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, the step of using historical meter data comprises a step of remotely acquiring the meter data.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, the predetermined period past is in the order of a month.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method for load estimation with interaction between an electrical energy supplier and a plurality of customer energy consumers, comprises the steps of: grouping the plurality of customers into respective customer circles such that each circle comprises a number of customers engaged in similar activities; developing respective historical load profiles for each of the customer circles for a predetermined period past; inputting the respective load historical profiles to an aggregate load profile estimator; inputting near past load profiles to the aggregate load profile estimator, the near past being recent as compared with the predetermined period past; providing an aggregate load estimate by the aggregate load profile estimator utilizing the historical load profiles and the near past load profiles; and trading in the aggregate load estimate.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, business management method for load estimation comprises a step of trading in the aggregate load estimate confidentially between sender and recipient.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method for load estimation comprises a step of trading in the aggregate load estimate within a customer circle of the respective customer circles.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method for load estimation comprises a step of trading in the aggregate load estimate with electrical energy suppliers.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method for load estimation comprises a step of trading in the aggregate load estimate with any of electric power distribution companies, power generation companies, brokers, and suppliers.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method for load estimation comprises a step of inputting risk parameters to the aggregate load profile estimator for use in providing the aggregate load estimate.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method for load estimation comprises a step of inputting weather data to the aggregate load profile estimator for use in providing the aggregate load estimate.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method for load estimation comprises a step of inputting the current calendar date to the aggregate load profile estimator for use in providing the aggregate load estimate.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, a business management method for load estimation comprises a step of inputting risk parameters, weather data, and the current calendar date to the aggregate load profile estimator for use in providing the aggregate load estimate.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, the step of inputting risk parameters to the aggregate load profile estimator comprises a step of inputting variance.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, the step of developing respective load profiles comprises a step of using historical meter data.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, the step of using historical meter data comprises a step of remotely acquiring the meter data.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, the step of developing respective inputting near past load profiles comprises a step of using current meter data.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, the step of using current meter data comprises a step of remotely acquiring the meter data.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, the predetermined period past is in the order of a month.
The method is likewise applicable to other commodities such as a water supply, fuel gas supply, or the like.